President George Bush is re-elected and he is working with a mandate. Bush is enjoying confidence and legitimacy in the White House that he hasn’t before experienced. He says his reelection earned him some capital and he intends to spend it.

The Democratic Party isn’t even challenging the election results despite the scores of Ohio voter fraud allegations. The approximately $200,000 needed to file for and finance the laborious recount is being fundraised by the Green Party. Kerry and the Democrats won’t volunteer anything from the 15 million in extra campaign funds.

I voted for Kerry because he wasn’t Bush. I never had the illusions that I believed in Kerry, but now he just seems pitiful. I believed I could be apathetic to Bush, but some developments and comments from the revitalized Bush administration give cause for alarm.

It isn’t unusual for a president to experience turnover in the cabinet after reelection. The unusual part is how the cabinet and administration are being reshuffled. Without a pending election to motivate political correctness, Bush is tailoring the cabinet to ensure the like-mindedness of the decision makers that surround him. Colin Powell’s refreshing skepticism in the State Department is being replaced by house-pet Condoleezza Rice. The most frightening change in the administration is happening in the CIA. George Tenet took the fall for the failed neoconservative Iraq strategy. He has been replaced by Porter Goss, who has been ordered to cleanse the CIA of all disloyal and “subversive” liberal Democrats. These are the same disloyal liberals who rightly weren’t so convinced Iraq was a good idea.

The neoconservatives have posited plans for regime change in Iraq since 1997. They envision that military intervention will create a domino effect like democratization and economic liberalization of the Middle East. When George Tenet told Bush they had a slam dunk case against Iraq, it wasn’t in response to a question about a threat. Credible evidence has always suggested the opposite. The question was whether Tenet could produce them an excuse to finally initiate their dreams.

The problem with Condi and cleansing the CIA is that no one will question or oppose the means and intent of these dreamers. The amazing part is they can’t see for themselves the glaring flaws in Iraq.

The hawks in the administration have been eagerly sharpening their talons at the thought of a confrontation with Iran. The EU has commented that military intervention at this point is inconceivable. Bush and his team, however, will easily conceive of it without anyone around to doubt that it is worthwhile. They have hinted that within a year they hope for a degree of stabilization in Iraq in order to free up some troops. Stabilization of Iraq is not even close on the horizon.

The January elections are supposed to symbolize some semblance of sovereignty and progression for the country. Seventeen political parties, including some of the most relevant, are now boycotting the elections. They agree that any January elections under these conditions would be deeply flawed and unrepresentative. The Iraqis will never achieve stabilization until they feel a legitimate and credible force represents them. This is especially daunting considering the country’s now fragmented and delicate sectarian demographic.

There was never an intelligence problem in the CIA; there was just a selective attention problem from above. This is the black hole the neoconservatives were duly warned of and disregarded prior to the invasion. It is a black hole that costs the United States $1 billion a week.

With nearly three times the population and four times the size, Iran would make the Iraq situation seem simple. The Iranian people are fiercely nationalistic and unwelcoming of the United States. The government enjoys far more popular support than Saddam did and the army is more dangerous. This second domino would exponentially increase our engagement and radicalization in the region. Bush’s skepticism of recent, successful European diplomacy with Iran reinforces the hasty carelessness of the administration.

The fifth year of a presidency is a particularly active period. Presidents try to use the revitalization and confidence to pursue otherwise politically impractical goals. Bush has made it clear that he intends to expend some of this political capital. In the meantime we may as well grab some popcorn, be captivated by the news and hope that these risky expenditures don’t bankrupt the firm.

Jerry Marogil ([email protected]) is a first-year law student.